Investment optionality simulator

Buy optionality, not a fuel bet you cannot unwind

A digital twin of the retrofit decision. It prices wind-assisted propulsion, air lubrication, stacked energy-saving devices and a methanol dual-fuel conversion over the whole ownership horizon — weighted by the wind resource and steady-steaming share of the trade your vessel actually sails — then values the right to wait before committing capital to any one fuel.

Route profile

Pick the trade that matches your historical voyage record. It sets EU carbon scope, wind resource and steady-steaming share.

Vessel & market

240 d
24 t
620 €/t
78 €/t CO₂
6 %/yr
18000 €/d
12 yrs
8 %

Optionality-adjusted recommendation

Wind-assisted propulsion

Rotor sails or suction wings. Yield tracks the wind resource on your actual trade.

12-year TCO

39.23 M€

Versus doing nothing

2.26 M€

Deferral option value

0.4 M€

Scenario comparison

Total cost of ownership is capex plus off-hire plus the discounted bunker, carbon and maintenance bill over 12 years on north europe / baltic short sea.

Wind-assisted propulsion

39.23 M€

Fuel saved 13.6% · capex 2.6 M€ · off-hire €162,000 · carbon NPV 12.59 M€ · payback 6.6 yrs · optionality 86/100

Wind assist + air lubrication

40.14 M€

Fuel saved 17% · capex 4.3 M€ · off-hire €324,000 · carbon NPV 12.1 M€ · payback 9.3 yrs · optionality 78/100

Buy optionality (staged)

40.98 M€

Fuel saved 13.8% · capex 3.15 M€ · off-hire €198,000 · carbon NPV 11.06 M€ · payback 10.4 yrs · optionality 95/100

Do nothing (baseline)

41.49 M€

Fuel saved 0% · capex · off-hire €0 · carbon NPV 14.58 M€ · payback 0.0 yrs · optionality 35/100

Air lubrication system

41.89 M€

Fuel saved 5.4% · capex 1.9 M€ · off-hire €216,000 · carbon NPV 13.79 M€ · payback 14.8 yrs · optionality 80/100

Methanol dual-fuel conversion

64.37 M€

Fuel saved 1.5% · capex 9.5 M€ · off-hire €756,000 · carbon NPV 4.31 M€ · payback never at these prices · optionality 22/100

How optionality is valued

An irreversible conversion spends your right to wait. Under fuel-price and regulatory uncertainty that right has a price, so the model treats each pathway's reversibility as a real option: capital at risk multiplied by an uncertainty factor that rises with your carbon-escalation assumption, scaled by how much technical and commercial flexibility the fit preserves. Reversible energy-saving devices score high because they cut fuel today and leave every fuel pathway open tomorrow; a dual-fuel conversion scores low because it commits the ship to one bet.

  • · Carbon cost applies to the EU-scoped share of the trade only, escalated in real terms.
  • · Wind-assist yield tracks the route's wind index; air lubrication tracks steady steaming.
  • · Stacked devices are de-rated for interaction, not simply added together.
  • · 3.4 t CO₂ per tonne of conventional fuel, well-to-wake.

Planning model, not a guarantee. Inside Full Ahead Maritime the same engine runs on your own logged voyages, bunker records and running hours instead of these defaults.

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Next step · one real vessel

You just ran the numbers. Want to keep the work with the vessel record?

The calculator works on figures you typed. A 30-day parallel review lets your team examine the retrofit payback against its own age, trade and fuel burn alongside the maintenance and compliance record it already keeps.

Ran the retrofit TCO simulator? Mention it in the note and I will start from those figures.